A roundabout approach

According to a report from the BBC, a study about to be published in the Lancet suggests that ... an estimated 655,000 Iraqis have died since 2003 who might still be alive but for the US-led invasion. The study, conducted by the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHBSPH) estimate that the mortality rates have more than doubled since the invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein, causing an average of 500 deaths a day. President Bush has already come out discrediting the report - saying that while the loss of civilian life causes him grief "Six-hundred thousand or whatever they guessed at is just... it's not credible." In the past, Mr Bush has put the civilian death toll in Iraq at 30,000 - and other independent reports such as Iraq Body Count's figure of 44-49,000 civilian deaths, based on media reports. The JHBSPH relies on a "cluster" method - and this originally showed that 100,000 had died in the first year of the invasion. If their reckoning holds true - it suggests that the death rate has increased to 250,000 per annum. Which suggests that the whole notion of introducing democracy to Iraq could be a moot point if they a) kept the occupation going long enough and b) increased their kill rate. Hmmm.